posted 1:05 PM
Existing polling methodology is pre-cellular.
How many twenty-somethings in the United States have never had their own land line? Which is not to say they don't have telephones, or that they won't vote...
Young 'n Black 'n Voting: A prediction from Salon.com
Get ready for a November surprise A "black young'n" says the polls and pundits just don't get the new voter realities. Kerry wins in a
blowout, predicts this Salon reader.
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By Kevin Criss
Oct. 27, 2004 | I am a 21-year-old African-American/loyal Salon reader/ frequent writer to you. Although I love you all a lot and, like you (assuming so), I am a liberal, I just feel I have to scream at you for a bit. Almost two weeks ago, I sent a letter to you guys telling you how the new Eminem song "Mosh" has many young'ns riled up, angry, motivated and against Bush. Now 10 days or so later, not only you guys but many publications are up on it. My point? Maybe you guys should listen more to us young'ns, maybe have a young person consultant of sorts. After all, we will decide this election, as I will point out later in this letter.
First, let me just say prepare for the death of polls, as that will be the dominant story coming out of election night. First blacks. I saw Ann Coulter on some show where she was literally speaking for black America. Being that she is an aging white chick with poorly dyed roots, she obviously got it wrong. Those polls saying how Bush will get 16 to 18 percent of the black vote are just wrong. To quote ODB, "Nigga please." Since black people aren't really polled, here is a bit of insight.
Although we aren't that excited about Kerry, he has nothing to worry about with the African-American community. We as a whole don't like Bush, period. Yes,
Democrats take us for granted and regardless of which party, we are at the bottom of the totem poll, but we realize that Democrats talk to us, try with us, are down with us, and give us a seat at the table. We are gamed to what the GOP do, or rather don't do for us.
Locally, as all politics are, as a person living in Louisiana, I can tell you that the more racist persons here are a part of the Republican Party and to us the GOP chooses them over us. Plus, we are highly motivated. You just don't realize how pissed we are from Florida last time. Bringing out Clinton won't hurt, but Kerry shouldn't worry about us African-Americans.
Next, us young'ns. We aren't as stupid as people think. Simply put, we are in Iraq fighting or we know someone there, we have no health insurance, no jobs, and are generally pro-human rights (not for the gay marriage amendment, PATRIOT Act, etc.). We aren't going to vote for Bush, period. Kerry will take about 70 percent of the young vote. I am predicting, collectively there will at least 20 million more voters from these two groups, young'ns and blacks. You maybe think "yeah the fuck right" -- but trust me. On average 30 percent of African-Americans vote. Expect a minimum of 50 percent this time, maybe close to double. That is anywhere between 7 to 9 million more blacks voting. Young'ns will have a similar margin. Again, we at most vote at a 40 percent rate. Young'ns will easily double their numbers, going from 18 million to about 36 million.
Here are things to ponder.
Kerry wins Arizona: This state has the most college students per capita. Kerry will win Flagstaff, Tucson and Tempe. Throw in Native Americans, Latins, and even
moderate Republicans who will vote Democratic (they got the Democratic governor elected), and oh I forgot all the Independents, Kerry will win this state.
Kerry wins Nevada: This state simply comes down to Vegas. Kerry will win Vegas by a big enough margin to cancel out the rest of the state.
Kerry win Missouri: What people either don't realize or just don't give a fuck to report is that the black mobilization efforts in St. Louis and Kansas City are second to none, literally. Florida got the attention last time, but people seem to have forgotten that blacks there were denied the right to vote at many polling places that were closed on them. Throw in college towns, Kerry wins.
Kerry wins Minnesota: I can't believe people actually think this state is close. What people tend to forget is that voters here can register as you vote. Throw in
Ventura's endorsement and the young'ns.
Kerry wins Colorado: Sometimes people just got to listen to the streets. I have family and friends in Colorado, and what they tell me is that "Fahrenheit 9/11" has had a huge impact there, so much so they are still talking about it, and as people watched it they were changed by it. How can a tradtional red state have a rich ass Senate candidate getting his ass kicked and polls showing Bush/Kerry within the margin. Kerry wins.
Kerry wins Texas: PSYCH! But just as people are saying Kerry wins CA, NY, and NJ by closer margins, so does Bush take his own state. I'll go out on a margin and say Bush gets no more than 60 percent in his own state. Holla.
Just to save space and time: Kerry wins Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, N. Hampshire, and Penn. He may lose Iowa, as I really don't know much about that state.
Kerry wins nationally in a blowout. Election night is over as central time zone states finish reporting. Why? Because of blacks and young'ns. Bush's people know
this, as their strategy is to turn out their base while suppressing our base ... fuckers.
I ask that in the future that you at least take in more opinions from us young'ns and Afro Americans.
And Jack Womack gets back to us on the Le Monde Diplomatique article:
"I suspect that the on-the-ground reporter probably missed nine out of ten subtle code words, phrases, or even looks expressed by Bush/the Republicans that play upon or trigger racist and (more to the point, in that particular Ky./W.Va. area of Appalachia) xenophobic feelings in the working class audience.
"As for the smugness of the cultural elite, it is hard to imagine the average guy in eastern Kentucky, if he votes, to go vote for Bush simply because he wants to show those media/Hollywood types they can't tell him what to think. This assumes the average guy in eastern Kentucky cares as much about what Dan Rather (or William F. Buckley)thinks as much as Dan Rather (or William F. Buckley) might think everyone thinks about them.
"I suspect it far more possible that said average guy would vote for the Republicans because people in big cities (i.e., read immigrants, Jews, blacks, gays)vote for Democrats. This would go along with what is showing up in the county-by-county breakdowns, where even the reddest of states have their blue -- generally metropolitan -- areas.
"Information, and the willingness more than the ability to let that information into one's head is the key. Look at that PIPA study -- all of those interviewed/polled who believe Saddam was behind 9/11 cannot possibly *all* be unintelligent, no more than all those in the Administration who believe the same, regardless of fact (I'm thinking of the true believers here), cannot all be unintelligent. But can they be willfully uninformed, so as not to further disrupt the day-to-day grasp of control over one's immediate reality? Yep. I don't care what anyone says; you cannot look at GWB and what he and his Administration have done during the past four years and think 'What a great job! How Churchillian! How Lincolnesque!' unless you blind yourself, consciously, unconsciously, or whatever way, to a whole lot of reality beyond what lies immediately in front of you.
"Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it, as Santayana says; and those who forget -- or ignore -- the present doom themselves and everyone else to live in it."
On reflection, I'm inclined to agree. Jack is originally from Kentucky, I'm originally from southwestern Virginia, and we share a certain sense of the baroquely impacted culture of those places. I doubt our French journalist was picking up the majority of signs and symbols he came across. I do think, though, that there may be something to this idea, or perhaps to an idea quite similar to it that we haven't yet had. (As Bruce Mau likes to say, we must honor our mistakes.)
posted 7:51 AM
"Where Evil Meets Stupid"
"Which is exactly why this was so necessary."
"It is clear from what we saw in the Appalachians that the populism of the US right no longer feeds mainly on racism...or on xenophobia. On the contrary it draws on resentment fuelled by the upper classes’ undisguised contempt for those not in the know. This particular kind of populism almost exclusively targets the cultural elite; it does not target business. This con trick is only possible because the smugness of those in the know is even more insufferable than the insolence of the rich."
"Serge Halimi", Le Monde Diplomatique
I distrust the translation of this article, and find the idea that racism and xenophobia no longer serve as major drivers (and he forgets homophobia entirely) but there's nonetheless something very interesting here. I think we might even be seeing it in some of the response to that poll of academics. Could there be such things as entirely postmodern fulcra of resentment?